McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead
I found this relevant to previous comments to one of my posts. I find it to no surprise that McCain made this jump in the polls. He’s been doing the right things - being honest with the people. Is the American public realizing who Senator Barack Obama really is?
I hope so. Only time will tell.
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About Michael Ubbens
Mike Ubbens is a senior Political Science and Secondary Education major at Susquehanna University. Mike is originally from Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania. Last year he served as the State Treasurer for the federation, and is currently the Chairman of the Susquehanna University College Republicans. Upon graduation, Mike hopes to attend law school.
Tags: McCain, Mike Ubbens, Press
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on Tuesday, July 29th, 2008 at 10:10 am by Michael Ubbens
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July 29th, 2008 at 10:26 am
which poll was it? the gallup daily tracking poll still shows obama in the lead (as he has been every day since april, though always within the MOE)
July 29th, 2008 at 11:07 am
ah, i figured it out. obama is still ahead in the gallup tracking poll because it measures support among registered voters. but today’s poll showed mccain ahead in “likely voters”. but you can’t distinguish “likely voters” from “registered voters” unless you make certain assumptions about who is likely to turn out. especially in this case where the very same poll showed that obama still had the lead among likely voters. that means that gallup is assuming that among the registered voters who don’t show up to vote, a disproportionate number will be obama supporters. that assumption itself is not based on any polling data, it’s just an educated guess. the numbers themselves still show obama ahead.
the assumptions to produce “likely voters” could be right, but they could just as easily be wrong. you can’t be sure that mccain is ahead among actual voters unless he also pulls ahead in the registered voters
a pretty good analysis of gallup’s number crunching (and it’s mixed record of doing it in the past) is here.