Comments on: McCain Surges to 4-Point Lead http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2008/07/mccain-surges-to-4-point-lead/ Fri, 18 May 2012 17:23:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: upyernoz http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2008/07/mccain-surges-to-4-point-lead/#comment-111 upyernoz Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:07:27 +0000 http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2008/07/mccain-surges-to-4-point-lead/#comment-111 ah, i figured it out. obama is still ahead in the gallup tracking poll because it measures support among registered voters. but today's poll showed mccain ahead in "likely voters". but you can't distinguish "likely voters" from "registered voters" unless you make certain assumptions about who is likely to turn out. especially in this case where the very same poll showed that obama still had the lead among likely voters. that means that gallup is assuming that among the registered voters who don't show up to vote, a disproportionate number will be obama supporters. that assumption itself is not based on any polling data, it's just an educated guess. the numbers themselves still show obama ahead. the assumptions to produce "likely voters" could be right, but they could just as easily be wrong. you can't be sure that mccain is ahead among actual voters unless he also pulls ahead in the registered voters a pretty good analysis of gallup's number crunching (and it's mixed record of doing it in the past) is <a href="http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/012917.php" rel="nofollow">here</a>. ah, i figured it out. obama is still ahead in the gallup tracking poll because it measures support among registered voters. but today’s poll showed mccain ahead in “likely voters”. but you can’t distinguish “likely voters” from “registered voters” unless you make certain assumptions about who is likely to turn out. especially in this case where the very same poll showed that obama still had the lead among likely voters. that means that gallup is assuming that among the registered voters who don’t show up to vote, a disproportionate number will be obama supporters. that assumption itself is not based on any polling data, it’s just an educated guess. the numbers themselves still show obama ahead.

the assumptions to produce “likely voters” could be right, but they could just as easily be wrong. you can’t be sure that mccain is ahead among actual voters unless he also pulls ahead in the registered voters

a pretty good analysis of gallup’s number crunching (and it’s mixed record of doing it in the past) is here.

]]> By: upyernoz http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2008/07/mccain-surges-to-4-point-lead/#comment-109 upyernoz Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:26:20 +0000 http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2008/07/mccain-surges-to-4-point-lead/#comment-109 which poll was it? the gallup <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/109126/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-40.aspx" rel="nofollow">daily tracking poll</a> still shows obama in the lead (as he has been every day since april, though always within the MOE) which poll was it? the gallup daily tracking poll still shows obama in the lead (as he has been every day since april, though always within the MOE)

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