Comments on: Rasmussen shows trend toward Republicans http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2009/02/rasmussen-shows-trend-toward-republicans/ Fri, 18 May 2012 17:51:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: upyernoz http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2009/02/rasmussen-shows-trend-toward-republicans/#comment-5608 upyernoz Thu, 16 Jul 2009 16:19:41 +0000 http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/?p=113#comment-5608 a month waiting moderation? seriously, i'm getting worried about you guys. are you all still alive? a month waiting moderation? seriously, i’m getting worried about you guys. are you all still alive?

]]> By: upyernoz http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/2009/02/rasmussen-shows-trend-toward-republicans/#comment-5596 upyernoz Sun, 15 Feb 2009 15:24:05 +0000 http://pacollegerepublicans.com/blog/?p=113#comment-5596 huh? i think you read the link backwards. megan from this post: <i>Today 40% of voters say they will vote for their Republican candidate in the next congressional election versus 39% who will vote for their Democratic candidate.</i> from the rasmussen link: <i>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that the Democrats’ lead is down to just one percentage point. Forty percent (40%) of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican</i> see the difference? it's 40% for dems, 39% for repubs, not the other way around. that being said, it is really close, within the +/-1% margin of error. so technically speaking, it's a statistical tie. on the other hand, "generic ballot" questions are often not very predictive of performance on election day. generic candidates don't run for office, actual individuals do. and while, for example, a lot of pennsylvanians might say they prefer a "generic democrat" for senate, arlen specter always picks up quite a few votes from dems in this state. a lot of folks who might prefer a "generic dem" for senate, will vote for the actual republican specter when they get the chance. huh? i think you read the link backwards.

megan from this post: Today 40% of voters say they will vote for their Republican candidate in the next congressional election versus 39% who will vote for their Democratic candidate.

from the rasmussen link: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that the Democrats’ lead is down to just one percentage point. Forty percent (40%) of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican

see the difference? it’s 40% for dems, 39% for repubs, not the other way around.

that being said, it is really close, within the +/-1% margin of error. so technically speaking, it’s a statistical tie.

on the other hand, “generic ballot” questions are often not very predictive of performance on election day. generic candidates don’t run for office, actual individuals do. and while, for example, a lot of pennsylvanians might say they prefer a “generic democrat” for senate, arlen specter always picks up quite a few votes from dems in this state. a lot of folks who might prefer a “generic dem” for senate, will vote for the actual republican specter when they get the chance.

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